By Alessio Colonnelli –
Emigration is compounding the problem, and immigration isn’t enough. (Spanish original here.)
At the end of 2018, foreign citizens legally residing in Italy were 8.7% of the population, a figure lower than neighbouring states’ – Switzerland 25%, Germany 11.7%, Austria 13.5% and France 11.8% – suggesting that many Africans and Asians view the country as a mere stopping place.
Indeed, the influx of immigrants into Italy isn’t enough to stop its population from declining. People, in some places, are simply nowhere to be seen or heard. “Not even dogs are,” as historian Lorenzo Ferrari wrote back in May after trekking across quake-stricken Central Italy. Apennine and south villages are especially affected; and a combination of mountainous terrain and southern latitude is literally lethal.
Ever heard of properties in the Italian sun on sale for one euro? The creative strategies countryside mayors are using to revive local economies are commendable. Eventually, these are picked up and reported on by major news broadcasters and international titles, as the New York Times featured with regard to Italy’s scarcely frequented Molise region (on a BBC cue).
But is any of this going to help a country that is haemorrhaging people as we speak? Because every year more of them emigrate or die than those choosing Italy as their new, stable home.
As of 1 January 2019, there were 60,359,546 inhabitants residing in Italy: 124,000 fewer than the year before, according to ISTAT, the national statistics institute. And while the ugly effects of Brexit – including the authorities’ likely refusal to grant settled status in many cases – might make many among the 700,000 Italians residing in Britain want to return to the ancestral land, others will just stay where they are.
Most left Italy because of unemployment, in search of better career prospects or academic ambition; sometimes they escaped from oppressive patriarchal families. Wrongly placed expectations can over time sever bonds. In some instances, which are difficult to quantify, people left Italy as a result of a combination of any number of these causes. Complex stuff. One thing is clear to them, though: nothing will have changed in Italy while they were away.
An issue that is becoming chronic is Italy’s low birth-rate. This negative trend started in the early 1990s, over a quarter of a century ago. Women are having 1.32 children a head. The country would need that figure to be at 2.1 to sustain the economy. ISTAT claims that immigrant women in Italy have 1.9 children a head on average; Italian women only 1.2.
“People on the streets are not economists, they are not studying debt to GDP numbers, but they can sense that Italy’s large public debt means there will be less money in the future,” Marco Valerio Lo Prete told recently the Financial Times in Rome. “Correlation is not causation, but it is interesting that both Japan and Italy have very high public debts and very low birth-rates,” added the journalist, a co-author of a book on Italian demographics. Italians feel disillusioned towards days and years to come, hence their reluctance to have children.
Can immigrants help more, then? What’s stopping them? Asking unusual questions while looking into Italy’s demographic stagnation leads one to delve into national politics. Consider this, first: the country is the main port of call for African boats, where also Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and Afghans often start the final leg of a really long journey.
Recently, the numbers of such boats landing on Italian shores have considerably declined. Former Interior minister Marco Minniti, from the governing centre-left Democratic party, chose to help the Libyan coast guard (but also Niger’s police) both financially and with new equipment to stem the influx of immigrants.
Back in June 2017, an average of 12,000 immigrants arrived every 48 hours that month. Many felt, with reason, these were too many for a country of 60 million. “The June surge comes after the arrival of 60,228 migrants in Italy by sea in the first five months of 2017, with 1,562 reported to have died in the Mediterranean. The number of migrants from Libya this year is on course to exceed the 200,000 recorded last year,” wrote the Guardian’s Patrick Wintour, adding that “There were 22,993 arrivals in May. Since the beginning of 2016, only July and October last year [2016] have seen higher numbers of arrivals by sea. Nigerian is the first declared nationality of around 15% of those arriving in 2017, followed by Bangladeshi (12%), Guinean (10%) and Ivorian (9%).”
Minniti was nonetheless criticised for this by the left faction of his “broad church” party; and he wasn’t praised by Matteo Salvini either, his right-wing successor. The latter claimed all the merit for himself, unwilling to concede anything to a political opponent.
Analysts worked out that the arrivals of immigrants across the Mediterranean went down by 77% between the first six months of 2017 and 1 June 2018, Minniti’s last day in his ministerial job. In 2019 figures were lower still: 11,471. Salvini continued Minniti’s work. To his credit, Salvini forced European countries to face the unpalatable debate about not letting Italy alone in dealing with sudden masses of newcomers.
And so, while emigration is aggravating the issue of Italy’s collapsing birth-rate, immigration isn’t enough to partly solve it. The consequences of all this on public finances and the pension system are going to be dramatic. People don’t want to settle down in the country, be that Italians or non-Italians passing through. Why not? A short question, but one Italian statesmen have always struggled to answer.
(Originally written by Alessio Colonnelli in Spanish on 22 January 2020, exclusively for Thoughts on Europe. Translated by the author. All rights reserved. Twitter: @co1onne11i.)
Alessio Colonnelli 